Each NBA draft cycle generates excitement over the next wave of talent, most of whom come from power-conference programs. Still, some of the draft’s most notable players often emerge from mid-major schools. The introduction of name, image and likeness opportunities has made it difficult for those programs to retain elite talent, but mid-major standouts continue to find success.
Since 2020, 32 players from mid-major programs have been drafted. That total rises to 41 when including programs such as Memphis and Gonzaga, which are not considered traditional mid-majors. With scouts searching for the next Jalen Williams, the spotlight on mid-major prospects has never been brighter.
This year is no different, with several mid-major players projected to be in the mix for the 2025 draft. Here are seven prospects with the highest upside.
Quentin Jones, Guard, Saint Louis
Get to know the name quickly because by January, Quentin Jones will be rising up draft boards. Last year for Northern Illinois. Jones averaged about 16 points, five rebounds and four assists. Jones compiled 11 20-point games while shooting 36% from 3 on a high volume of attempts. Dating back to his days at Cal Poly, he shot around 40% from deep, so the shooting is real.
Jones’ usage will decrease under Josh Schertz, but his efficiency and effectiveness figures to improve. Jones will show his playmaking in pick-and-roll sets with Robbie Avila, which is an underrated part of his game. The positional size allows him to be a two-way menace, as evident in his 1.3 steals per game last year.
The progression each year shows that he has improved with the increasing competition level. Under a guard-friendly system and a better conference, expect Jones to shine even brighter. His three-level scoring ability allows him to keep defenses off balance and on defense, he can guard multiple positions at a high level. That versatility, added with the shooting, will have Jones as a fringe first-round pick by March.
Miles Byrd, Guard, San Diego State
Byrd was a potential second-round pick in this year’s draft but went back to school to improve his stock. The most important area he needs to improve is his shooting. Early in his career, he did not shoot a lot of 3s. He also struggled to make them. Last year, he attempted the most 3s per game in his career and was around 30%. The positive is that he does not let his poor shooting dictate the rest of his game.
Defensively, there are not many better, especially with the ability to defend multiple positions. His 6-foot-10 wingspan allows him to play passing lanes well in help-side while forcing ball handlers into non-advantageous situations. If he can put together a good offensive season and be more consistent on that side of the ball, he could soar up draft boards.
The shot creation needs some improvement to force defenders to play him without sagging off. The film against good to elite teams was inconsistent, which points more to his offensive struggles. However, going through the draft process and getting feedback will enhance his offensive game this year. The numbers do not have to jump off the screen, but if he can demonstrate consistency in his defensive ability, it will not be shocking if he becomes a fringe lottery pick.
Tyrone Riley IV, Guard, San Francisco
Riley is one of the better two-way wings among mid-majors, consistently displaying a high motor at all times. Defensively, he can guard every position on the floor. Great instincts, good hands and a high IQ separate him from other mid-major wings on the defensive end. After entering the portal and generating some high-level interest, he returns to San Francisco in hopes of elevating his stock and possibly securing a WCC title.
Does the offense need work? Absolutely. There is little to no shot creation, and from 3, he is just over 31%. Pushing that up to just 33% or 34% would help his stock tremendously. As far as the shot creation, it is tough to say if he is incapable of doing it or if he just plays to his strengths. A lot of his scoring is done in transition and as a slasher in the half-court. He does not waste any dribbles or energy if he is not getting to the rim.
With the slashing skill set that Riley has, you would guess he gets to the line at a high rate. That is not the case, as evident in his 2.4 free-throw attempts per game. Riley lives in the paint with a soft touch and acrobatic finishes, but his ability to get to the line needs improvement.
The shortcomings are all fixable, but the defensive abilities must remain at a high level. He profiles as a 3-and-D wing at the next level, but the shooting needs to improve drastically to fulfill that profile fully. There is a world where Riley has a Cedric Coward-type emergence this year with an improved offensive arsenal.
Rafael Castro, Forward, George Washington
Castro is a double-double machine and the prototypical big man who runs the floor well and finishes at and above the rim at a high level. Despite his frame, he plays more physically than you would assume. A good screener and an even better finisher in pick-and-roll sets. There are not many big men better in the short roll area than Castro, something he has pointed out by working hard on throughout his career.
In the paint, Castro is as effective as they come. He is above 60% from the field, and although I would love to see a little more mid-range jump shots, it is hard to argue with how effective he is at the rim. On-ball defense needs work, especially when being switched on to guards, but when defending his position and being on the help-side, he exhibits high-level results.
As a big man, averaging 2.6 steals and blocks per game is impressive. The off-ball defense is ahead of the on-ball but with how he has improved each year, we can expect that to be better this year. As the season progressed, Castro got better. He finished the year scoring 20-plus points in seven of the last 13 games. With his level of offensive success mixed with the defensive upside, Castro is one of the more underrated big men in the country. Late second-round to a team that needs a vertical lob threat and shot blocker would be ideal.
Magoon Gwath, Center, San Diego State
Gwath is one of the best big man defenders in the country. The reigning Mountain West Conference Freshman and Defensive Player of the Year is back to prove he’s a potential first-round pick. Offensively, he is still extremely raw and shows flashes of doing more but must be more consistent. There would be games where he looked like a first-round pick on both ends, but others where you barely noticed he was on the floor. Being consistent on both ends is what must be donefor Gwath to reach his ceiling.
The good thing about the inconsistency is that it’s normal. All freshmen go through it regardless of how highly touted they are. How Gwath improves and corrects those inconsistencies will be the bigger point of emphasis. One part of his game that was consistent was his defense. He averaged 2.6 blocks per game and altering shots is his strength. He can also switch on guards while being effective at help-side coverage.
Physicality can bother him a bit, but with experience and the addition of more muscle, it will improve. He runs the floor well and can be a lob threat in the half-court off pick-and-roll actions. Improving his shot would help his draft status over the next year.
We saw a bevy of big men get drafted this year, and many of them have similar skill sets to Gwath. If he can perform better against elite competition and show some consistency on offense, forget being a potential draft choice, he may be a lottery pick.
Mikey Lewis, Guard, Saint Mary’s
Ironically enough, the sixth player is the reigning West Coast Conference Sixth Man of the Year. Lewis is a big-time player who should be on scouts’ radar. The counting stats may not stand out, but when you consider the offense he plays in, along with who he was playing behind, what he did as a freshman is even more impressive. His total points ranked in the top 10 among all freshmen under coach Randy Bennett while also leading the team in 3-point makes.
Averaging 16 minutes per game and being this productive is what makes people excited about Lewis. When the lights are the brightest, he shows up and shines. Scoring double digits in 11 games, including 23 against Nebraska and a couple against Gonzaga. Shooting 37% on around 4.5 3-point attempts is impressive – not to mention the clutch shots made throughout the season.
Lewis has great positional size and can be effective playing on or off the ball. He will likely see his minutes double and how he handles that workload will be huge in his NBA future. His playmaking needs to be a point of emphasis this year, as well as protecting the ball. At times, Lewis could be careless with the ball and have tunnel vision in the half-court. Both are common in young players, but Lewis has a chance to address those issues and still remain an effective offensive weapon.
Aidan Mahaney, Guard, UC Santa Barbara
If this were the stock market, we would consider this a buy-low stock. Mahaney went from being a two-time all-West Coast Conference member and a member of the West Coast Conference freshman team while at St. Mary’s. The transfer to Connecticut was unusual but understandable, given the NIL and the Huskies’ success over the last handful of years. During his short stint at UConn, Mahaney did not perform to his level, which ultimately led to him returning to the West Coast.
Confidence is everything in any sport, and while at UConn, Mahaney lost all his, and you could tell by his body language, along with the production. He also dealt with inconsistent minutes allocation, playing under 15 minutes in 10 of the final 17 games. When given 15 minutes or more, the scoring average went up by about three points.
This past year was not ideal, but we have two years of data to show that Mahaney is not the player he was at UConn. The pushback would be that he could not do it against high-level competition, which is not entirely true. During his two years at St. Mary’s, he performed well against teams such as Houston, Gonzaga, and Vanderbilt.
Defensively, there needs to be extreme improvement, but his superpower is shooting. Mahaney is a lethal shooter in every aspect. He shot 38% from deep and nearly 50% on open catch-and-shoot possessions. At the next level, that is an attribute the front office is looking for, and there are not many in the country who can shoot it from deep like Mahaney.
The stock may be at its lowest now, but buying now is a significant investment before he has a breakout season for UCSB. With his ability to score on or off the ball, do not be surprised if he averages close to 20 points per game this year in this offense.
