The SWAC is generally near the bottom of conference ratings, but it is one of the more fascinating conferences to watch on a weekly basis. Due to the influx of players moving around, some of these conferences are getting higher-caliber players than they normally get. This year, the SWAC has several of those players, along with some coaching turnover, which should make for a more competitive conference.
There were seven teams that won double-digit conference games last year. That was the most in the KenPom era (1997), which proves the conference is trending up. Pace and defense are what the SWAC has been built on lately. With changes across several teams, including players transferring down or high-level JUCO players coming up, the offenses should be slightly better.
We will highlight the top contenders and a few sleepers in the league this year. The coaches’ poll is out, along with the All-SWAC teams, but quite a few do not align with my rankings. Not that my rankings are correct, but the beauty of it is that the article can be pulled in March to see who was right.
Jackson State
The Mo Williams tenure has been a huge success thus far. The Tigers have 37 total SWAC wins under Williams and have increased their win total each year. Last year, they fell just short of an NCAA Tournament bid after losing to Alabama State. From a strength-of-schedule perspective, the Tigers went through a gauntlet. Starting 0-13 without a true home game until January and finishing in the SWAC Championship game demonstrates the staff’s resiliency and adjustments going into conference play.
Jackson State retained a lot of its production, bringing back three double-digit scorers, including the preseason player of the year, Daeshun Ruffin. The former top 80 recruit was sensational last year and will need to be just as good this year if the Tigers want to punch their ticket to the dance.
From a roster perspective, there is a nice blend of youth and veterans. Continuity remains, as only two transfers come in, both of whom add size to the front court. Offensively, they struggled early on as Ruffin battled injuries, and the quality of opponents prevented consistent play on that end. Despite that, they finished with the best offensive rating in the SWAC by a decent margin. This year, with a fully healthy Ruffin, the offense should remain at the top of the SWAC, especially with returning four players who shoot 35-plus percent from 3.
Typically, the defense under Williams has finished middle of the pack in the conference. With what they have returning, expect another jump at the defensive end. Since Williams arrived, the defense has been good at forcing turnovers. Last year, that wasn’t the case, and it could be due to the tougher schedule of offenses, but the ball pressure must be better.
Having the best player in the conference and the type of returning production they have does not happen often. Williams and staff have done a great job of player development and retention, which is why they are one of the favorites this year. Not all returning production is created equal, but these players have shown the ability to perform and win when they do. Other contending teams may have equal or more talent, but chemistry could take some time.
Home is where the heart is for the Tigers, which is key, as homecourt in the SWAC does not translate into much in terms of home win percentage on KenPom. They went 8-1 at Williams Arena last year, finishing 14-4 before the SWAC Tournament. Those 14 conference wins were the most since 2010 under Tevester Anderson.
The guards are small but run the system well, and Ruffin is as good as advertised. Protecting the ball should be a focal point, along with causing havoc on defense. Trusting Williams to get things done has been the right decision in his tenure. This is a big year for the Tigers, and the belief is that they will be dancing in March behind a strong season from a veteran roster.
Bethune–Cookman
From a talent perspective, the Wildcats have the most in the conference. There is a big difference between having talent and being able to get the most out of that talent. How these players mesh under Reggie Theus is the biggest question going into this season. Bringing in Doctor Bradley and former five-star Arterio Morris will certainly raise expectations and the offensive ceiling.
Last year’s success was solely on the defense. The Wildcats ranked inside the top 75 in effective field-goal percentage defense as well as inside the top 50 in 3-point percentage defense. Theus has increased defensive efficiency each year since taking the job. Offensively, it has not been good, and that may be an understatement. In nearly every key offensive metric, the Wildcats ranked outside the top 270.
What does the staff do to improve the offense? Bring in two outstanding transfers to get more balance. There are eight incoming transfers, of which half averaged double-digit points last year. Each player brings something different offensively, and that type of versatility is what the Wildcats need. Due to the massive turnover, Theus must be careful not to have his players lose sight of the defensive end as the offense improves.
Replacing your two best players (Freeman & Thomas) is never easy, but when you bring in Doctor Bradley and Arterio Morris, who are instant offense in multiple ways, it does ease that transition. Not to mention getting back Jakobi Heady, who played extremely well for Central Michigan. After finishing in the middle of the SWAC in offense, expect a nice leap from the Wildcats with the influx of talent they brought in.
The talent speaks for itself, even after losing Zion Harmon about a month ago. Not many SWAC teams can throw a trio like Bradley-Morris-Heady on the floor. They also bring back solid veteran depth pieces who understand the Theus system. Their wing depth is the best in the SWAC. But they lack some interior size, which could lead to players playing out of position.
The interior depth, along with the chemistry, is what held them out of the number one spot for me. It is a reason they were picked preseason to win the league with seven more first-place votes than the next team. Theus has won 24 conference games over the last two seasons, the most in back-to-back seasons since Bethune-Cookman was in the MEAC in 2011-12.
Offensive firepower is there, but can they get the same defensive buy-in that made them good last season? Likely to be some bumps and bruises early on, but when the smoke clears, do not be shocked to see a Wildcat-Tiger SWAC championship game in March.
Texas Southern
Projected to finish fifth in the preseason would not seem like a slight, but this program has been the model for consistency. Under Johnny Jones, the Tigers have had 10-plus SWAC wins in six of his seven years. They have finished outside the top five only once (though they won the conference tournament) and have gone to three consecutive NCAA Tournaments. When they finish at fifth or lower, the subsequent year is generally a “bounce-back” year.
By my estimation, this year is set for the Tigers to get back in the top three. It was tough early on, but the Tigers finished 12-6 from Jan. 6 through the final regular-season game. Winning seven of their first eight SWAC games had them trending toward another conference title, but some close-game misfortune had them go 5-5 in the remaining conference games. A couple of those close losses go their way, and they would have been right in the mix for the SWAC title.
After losing some key pieces, the Tigers need to replace about 28 points per game. They did not rely on the portal with only one transfer coming in. First things first, they need to stay healthy through the initial gauntlet of a schedule. According to the updated roster, only nine players are listed. That is a concern if a few guys get banged up, but Jones generally relies on his bench at a high level, so keeping players’ usage rates down should not be an issue.
It’s funny how numbers work sometimes. For example, under Jones, last year’s team was his best 3-point shooting team since arriving. That landed them outside the top 320 overall and seventh in the conference. Three-point shooting is not the be-all, end-all metric, but generally, when teams shoot it well, the offense flows better. Not the case for the Tigers, which is why they must restore some balance this year.
While the offensive numbers were not up to par, they led the SWAC in defensive efficiency. Rebounding and turning teams over are generally staples of the Tigers’ system, but they have faltered over the last few years. The size they have on the perimeter should allow them to be more disruptive at the point of attack, leading to easier looks for the offense. An improved offense will make the defense look better, and the Tigers have the roster to do just that.
It would not be shocking if we saw the Tigers’ tempo come down and they play more in the halfcourt. Early on, that is what should be expected to keep guys healthy for SWAC play. Being physical, rebounding, and getting to the free-throw line are critical for the Tigers. They got away from that over the last few years, but now is the time to get back to what they do best.
Injuries aside, this roster is good enough to contend in the SWAC. They are led by veterans who have been through the fire together and understand what it takes to win. Zaire Hayes will run the show, but there must be some guys who step up to help, specifically Duane Posey and big man Oumar Koureissi, who will be in an expanded role. My ranking is higher on the Tigers than the consensus, but trusting Jones and his staff is not a bad bet.
Alabama A&M
The Bulldogs are predicted to finish in the middle of the SWAC, but you heard (well, read) it here first, they’ll be contending for a top-three spot by year’s end. Why? The short answer would be because of Donte Jackson. The long answer is what we will explore through metrics, opinions and hypotheses.
During Jackson’s tenure at Grambling State, he was a consistent winner and culture builder. Over eight years, he outperformed his KenPom rating in six of those seasons and reached the NCAA Tournament in 2023. Only three times did his team not have double-digit SWAC wins, while finishing under .500 only twice overall. Essentially, what all this means is that Jackson is a winner. Also, note that all of this was done with his offenses finishing in the top 300 only two times.
From a roster perspective, it is a complete overhaul for the Bulldogs. However, there is some familiarity that helps bring continuity to Normal, Alabama. Of the 12 incoming players, seven are from Grambling State, including an All-SWAC first team preseason selection in Kintavious Dozier.
All these players who made the move with Jackson are veterans, and six of them played double-digit minutes for him. Mix in a few productive transfers, and there should be some excitement surrounding these new-look Bulldogs.
Generally, roster turnover doesn’t happen like this, but it just means the Bulldogs should hit the ground running. Speaking of running, Jackson has slowed his tempo over the last few years, leading to some inconsistencies in their metrics. A hypothesis of mine is that it was due to the roster makeup and the conference’s trend. Most teams play with tempo, so zigging while everyone is zagging was maybe what he had in mind.
Regardless of the tempo, the Bulldogs must put together some offense, which has been the weakness of Jackson’s teams. The talent level, versatility, and veteran presence are all there. It is just about getting them to put the ball in the basket consistently. Defensively, there should be no reason they finish outside the top five in the conference, especially after finishing sixth last year.
During his tenure, the defenses typically were in the top five. Two years ago, they finished atop the SWAC in defensive efficiency, so getting back to that is certainly attainable. The offense producing anything with a pulse should help, and we should see that this year. If the offense sneaks into the top five in the SWAC, look out for the Bulldogs to bite their way into the top three or four in the standings.
Grambling State
Ironically enough, the second sleeper team is where the first sleeper team’s coach left. The Tigers are under a new regime after losing Donte Jackson to Alabama A&M. What did they do to fix that coaching search? Well, they hired another conference coach, Patrick Crarey II, from FAMU. As with most coaching hires, there comes roster turnover – this is no different as the Tigers lose 8 key contributors from last year.
To help refill the roster, Crarey and staff utilized the portal in multiple avenues. There are 11 new players on the roster, ranging from Division II to NAIA to JUCO. While there will be an adjustment curve for both players and coaches, Crarey has proven to get the best out of his teams. From the NAIA ranks to FAMU, he has won and created a winning culture, more importantly.
In his short stint in Tallahassee, Crarey led the Rattlers to the most conference wins since 2022 and the most overall wins since 2014 when they were in the MEAC. The roster is talented, deep and has the potential to outplay their preseason ranking. Outperforming expectations is what Crarey is accustomed to doing, so this challenge should be no tall task.
Picked seventh in the SWAC preseason poll, the amount of turnover speaks volumes about what this staff is capable of. Rod Coffee III should help with the transition as he comes over with Crarey from FAMU. The senior guard adds toughness on both ends of the floor and can help the rest of the roster get up to speed with the core principles of the new staff.
The roster has excellent positional size, with only one player under 6-foot-4. That size and length do not appear on many SWAC rosters. Utilizing the two-way ability of wings like Derrius Ward and Jimel Lane will be pivotal in the Tigers’ success. The staff is analytically driven, so there will be a lot of rim and 3-point attempts. That style helped lead FAMU to the SWAC’s second-best offense, and with a more talented roster, expectations should remain high.
KenPom has the Tigers ranked 304th in the country. The schedule is tough but manageable. It will be critical for the new players to develop chemistry and cohesiveness prior to SWAC play. From November to Christmas, they will only play two home games. Being on the road for that long can make or break a team, but as mentioned before, the track record speaks for itself. Crarey and staff will have the Tigers in full throttle by the beginning of SWAC play.
